Today is Tuesday, August 25, 2026

I. Market News

Macro Environment: The U.S. Treasury may tap approximately $1 trillion from its TGA account to support bond buybacks, reinforcing expectations of lower long-term interest rates and bolstering risk asset valuations. The U.S. dollar index stands at 99.05, reflecting relative weakness.

ETF Flows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.92 billion over the past week, the strongest weekly performance since October 2025; spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $697 million for the week.

Short Squeeze: Over $3 billion in leveraged short positions were liquidated in the cryptocurrency derivatives market last week, driving BTC from around $63,000 to the $80,000 threshold in a rapid rally.

Institutional Moves: Strategy (MSTR) trading volume surpassed Microsoft and Meta, becoming the tenth most-traded stock in the U.S.

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II. Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Currently trading around $78,600–$79,000, up approximately 23% on the week. It hit a high of $79,974 before facing resistance and pulling back.

Resistance Levels: $80,000 psychological barrier. Previous high at $83,200.

Support Levels: $78,000 (a break below on high volume signals short-term weakness); $76,000–$75,000 below is a potential retest zone.

Ethereum (ETH)

Currently trading at $2,470–$2,500, up approximately 31% on the week. It peaked at $2,533 overnight before retreating.

Resistance Levels: Short-term $2,500–$2,550;

Support Levels: $2,423 (the starting low of this rally); $2,242 below (key Fibonacci 78.6% level).

Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, but the RSI has entered overbought territory (around 78), suggesting a short-term pullback and consolidation are likely.

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III. On-Chain Data

Genuine Spot Buying: This rally is backed by active spot buying, rising trading volumes, and expanding liquidity—not a brief rebound caused by insufficient liquidity.

Increased Network Activity: Daily active addresses are up, and entity-adjusted transfer volumes have grown significantly.

Profit-Taking Dominates: The share of BTC supply in profit is well above historical averages, with on-chain spending driven more by profit-taking than loss-selling.

Short-Term Capital Dominance: The "hot capital" indicator has broken above the upper bound of its statistical range, showing a notable increase in short-term sensitive funds. In contrast, macro long-term capital inflows remain relatively limited. The current rally is driven more by short-term trading and speculative demand than by sustained long-term capital accumulation.

Elevated Open Interest: Futures open interest has risen to high levels, with a significant uptick in speculative participation and leverage usage.

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Chu Yuechen: 8.25 Bitcoin and ETH Trading Reference

This rally is driven by three factors: spot buying, ETF inflows, and a short squeeze, with on-chain data confirming the authenticity of capital inflows. However, the $80,000 psychological level carries heavy selling pressure. With short-term capital dominating and open interest elevated, be wary of a spike-and-reverse risk. The altcoin season indicator has not yet confirmed (index at 43, below the 75 threshold), and funds remain concentrated in mainstream assets like BTC and ETH.

Last night, Bitcoin made another attempt at the $80,000 level, coming close but failing to break through, and has since pulled back slightly. This was within our expectations. The pullback near this level stems from two factors: profit-taking on lower-position long orders and attempts by short sellers. It's a normal psychological tug-of-war.

As I discussed in previous articles, buying on pullbacks remains the preferred strategy. For short attempts, there are two levels to watch: around $80,000 and $83,000.

Bitcoin's first attempt failed to break $80,000, now consolidating and building momentum

Policy tailwinds ignite the market, Bitcoin breaks $75,000 to start a bull run

Yesterday morning, we entered a long position at $77,000 and exited at $79,000. In the evening, we went long again at $78,000 on the pullback, netting over 3,000 points across the two trades—pretty solid. With liquidity in BTC and ETH picking up, trading has become smoother. More volatility means more opportunities. I can also sense the growing enthusiasm among everyone. These past few days, noticeably more friends have come to me to trade together, which is a great start. In the second half of the year, we're bound to achieve even better results.

Today, let's not be overly aggressive in our trading. We need to be precise with entry points and leave enough room for profit. For long opportunities, consider two levels: around $78,000 (with a tight stop-loss), and the $76,000–$75,000 range for entry, with a stop-loss below $75,000. The target remains $80,000.

For short attempts, still reference $80,000 and $83,000 as entry points, targeting around 2,000 points in profit, with a stop-loss of 1,000 points.

ETH levels are not as precise and should be viewed as a range. On the downside, look to enter longs around $2,350–$2,380, with a stop-loss below $2,300. On the upside, try shorts at $2,500–$2,550, with a stop-loss at $2,600. Basically, follow the same approach as BTC.

With liquidity picking up, we still need to prioritize risk management. Controlling risk is the foundation of profitability. Reckless trading will only lead to being schooled by the market.

Alright, that's all for today. We'll adjust our approach based on how the market evolves and notify you promptly in the community group. There are plenty of opportunities every day now. If your trading isn't going well, falling short of expected returns or even incurring losses, we can collaborate—it's bound to be more effective than going it alone!