Bitcoin: I Broke $80K; A-Shares: I'll Wait a Bit More...
Published: 2026-08-27 09:25
Views: 2,374
Yesterday's market played out a classic spike-and-pullback scenario—while all three major indices closed in the green, they fell well short of the midday surge. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.59% to close at 3912.52 points, managing to engulf Monday's bearish candle. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were less resilient, gaining 0.69% and 0.51% respectively, and neither managed to reclaim the 5-day moving average. So, is the market stabilizing? I think it's still too early to say.What really bothers me is the trading volume. Around midday, I noticed turnover had expanded by over 80 billion yuan compared to the previous day. But by the close, the full-day turnover came in at 1.82 trillion yuan, actually shrinking by more than 20 billion yuan from the prior session. This suggests that during the midday rally, not much fresh capital chased the move—most traders simply stepped back in the afternoon, preferring to wait and see.Wait for what? Everyone knows—the market is waiting for two things to land. One is the U.S. July PCE data, the Fed's most-watched inflation gauge. The other is Nvidia's earnings report. The former sets the tone for liquidity expectations, while the latter shapes AI computing valuations, and both will have a significant impact on A-share tech stocks today. Wall Street expects Nvidia's Q2 revenue to be around $92.2 billion. If it beats, great; if it misses, A-share AI-related stocks could feel the tremors today. In my view, unless both data points come in surprisingly strong, it will be hard to fully reverse the current market sentiment.Sector rotation remained as fast as a spinning fan. But yesterday, there was finally a thread to hold onto: the earnings line. With the end of August approaching, interim report disclosures are entering the final sprint, and capital is finally paying attention to fundamentals. The sectors that performed well—gold, securities, and paper—all had interim report catalysts behind them.Gold has been on a tear. Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan has hit five consecutive limit-ups, while Jiangxi Copper, Jinchen Co., and Baiyin Nonferrous all saw multiple limit-ups. Speaking of gold, although international gold prices dipped slightly yesterday, London spot gold is still hovering around $4,625 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures closed at $4,682 per ounce. Domestic gold jewelry prices are even more eye-popping—Chow Tai Fook's pure gold is already at 1,399 yuan per gram. Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $6.4 billion in a single week, the highest level since last October. However, the latest data shows that the world's largest gold ETF reduced its holdings by 1.14 tons yesterday, indicating some funds are already taking profits at these highs—so chasing the rally requires caution. Luoyang Molybdenum rose over 6% yesterday, with net capital inflows of 2.2 billion yuan. Nonferrous metals have been showing some real strength lately, driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and recovering domestic demand, prompting capital to place its bets.The securities sector finally flexed its muscles, with Jinlong Co. and Xiangcai Securities hitting limit-up. There's another force pushing this sector today—Bitcoin. Bitcoin briefly touched $81,237 yesterday, marking its first break above the $80,000 mark since mid-May, though it pulled back during the session and is currently around $79,000. When Bitcoin rises, the broader financial sector gets a boost too—Chutian Dragon's four consecutive limit-ups are a case in point. Capital is playing on the convergence of two themes: Bitcoin's sustained rally and brokers' strong first-half earnings. Among the 20 brokers that have disclosed interim reports, Zhongtai Securities posted the largest net profit growth at 146.38%. With A-share turnover hitting a record 317.5 trillion yuan in the first half, brokerage commissions and proprietary trading volumes have surged across the board. Bitcoin sets the stage, brokers take the spotlight—the financial sector's performance yesterday was indeed impressive.The paper sector strengthened early in the session, with Qingshan Paper hitting two consecutive limit-ups. But how long can the earnings theme last? I'd put a question mark on that. At this level, I think it's safer to look for opportunities in relatively low-positioned sectors, or simply adopt a wait-and-see approach. The upside for the broader market is limited, while the downside—theoretically—has more room, though that doesn't necessarily mean a deep sell-off. Sector opportunities are mostly structural and unlikely to sustain momentum.The medical services sector gapped up but faded, with Chengda Pharmaceutical falling over 5%. The motor sector fared worse, with Huarui Co. dropping more than 15%. This divergence shows that capital is still making selective choices rather than spreading the wealth evenly.Let me highlight a few directions worth watching.First, agriculture. The sector showed localized strength yesterday, with Hainan Rubber touching limit-up and Wandong Denong posting four limit-ups in seven days. On the news front, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the National Agricultural Product Origin Market System," proposing to build 50 agricultural product origin market clusters by 2030. It's a medium-to-long-term initiative, but the market is willing to buy in. The agriculture sector has been moving steadily lately, with supportive news flow, and has the potential to break through previous highs.Second, the power sector. It has quietly posted five consecutive gains, showing signs of breaking out of its bottom range. "Computing-power synergy" is this year's new theme, and since "computing" is currently under pressure, it makes sense for capital to periodically pay attention to "power." In the afternoon, Lixin Energy surged sharply, hitting limit-up within a minute and closing at 13.52 yuan, with a buy-side order book exceeding 350,000 lots. Turnover reached 1.586 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 13.54% and an amplitude of 14.48%. The dragon-tiger list revealed that renowned hot money trader Guotai Haitong Beijing Zhichun Road made a major entry, with a single-seat net buy of 119 million yuan. Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect also followed with 25.85 million yuan. But what was the institutional dedicated seat doing? Net selling 11.67 million yuan. Hot money piling in while institutions offload—this kind of bullish-bearish divergence is crystal clear on a single stock. This stock has appeared on the dragon-tiger list 12 times since July. Why all the buzz? The company's first-half net profit was 73.02 million yuan, up 715.75% year-on-year. The "Xinjiang Power Transmission" three-channel projects are gradually coming online, along with increased new energy subsidy collections. But the stock price has been on a rollercoaster since July—seven limit-ups in eight days followed by consecutive limit-downs, and after hitting 16.88, it reversed course. This kind of stock is fun to watch from the sidelines; getting involved requires a careful assessment of your own skills.On the theme front, foldable phones are drawing attention. Apple's first foldable phone is expected to launch on September 9, with a starting price of around 14,999 yuan for the domestic version. Huawei's tri-fold phone is also on the horizon. The global foldable phone market is projected to reach 26.72 million units this year, and Apple's entry alone could drive nearly 30% growth.This year, due to rising memory prices, overall consumer electronics sales have been declining, making it a weak sector. But foldable phones are different—they're a new product category that can attract customers who are less price-sensitive but more fashion-conscious, creating their own incremental market. Most companies making foldable phone components have small market caps and modest revenues, so a single hit product can drive annual performance. For example, Lens Technology mentioned in a conference call that they supply UTG glass and CPI film for a major client's foldable project—products with high processing difficulty and high value. That said, this sector is currently trading purely on expectations, so volatility will be significant—mind the risks.Another eye-catching sector yesterday was controlled nuclear fusion. Rongfa Nuclear Power opened with a one-word limit-up, closing at 6.24 yuan per share with a total market cap of 13 billion yuan. Hawel Hualong and Changfu Co. both rose over 10%. On the news front, at the 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Conference yesterday, nine companies including China Fusion announced a collaborative effort to tackle high-temperature superconducting strong-field tokamak magnets. Fusion is still far from commercial use, but capital is willing to speculate on expectations—nothing to be done about that.Commercial aerospace also had big news—the Long March 6C Yao-1 rocket successfully launched seven satellites in a single mission from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center. Here's the key point: it marks the first time a Chinese commercial aerospace company has achieved a whole-satellite export to Southeast Asia. The user of Galaxy Aerospace's Lingzhi 09 Thailand CubeSat is Thailand's Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency. This time, it's not just delivering satellites but also providing a complete solution including ground systems and talent training. From "using satellites" to "understanding satellites," Chinese commercial aerospace companies have taken a landmark step in going global. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology just stated at a State Council Information Office press conference yesterday that over the next five years, it will accelerate the development of emerging pillar industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and intelligent robotics. Policy sets the tone on one side, rockets launch on the other—the timing is quite fitting.Then there's lithium carbonate. Futures prices have rebounded nearly 15% cumulatively since August. On the supply side, domestic lithium salt plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, and overseas lithium ore arrivals have fallen short of expectations. On the demand side, August lithium battery production plans have exceeded 300GWh, hitting a record high. Lithium mining stocks have collectively exploded in interim reports—Tianqi Lithium's profit is expected to surge over 32-fold, and Ganfeng Lithium has turned from losses to profits. CITIC Construction Investment's assessment is that with the peak demand season arriving in the second half, supply gaps will gradually widen, with price highs likely in Q3 or Q4.A few interesting announcements worth mentioning. Hangzhou Cable's first-half net profit was 393 million yuan, up 938.67% year-on-year. Even more striking, renowned retail investor Zhang Jianping has newly entered as the third-largest shareholder with a 3.52% stake. With that level of earnings explosion plus a big-name investor entering, the market has already reacted. Giant Network's first-half net profit was 2.144 billion yuan, up 176% year-on-year. Its hit mobile game continues to generate high revenue, and the company plans to distribute 8 yuan per 10 shares as dividends. Gaming stocks have been cold lately, but this performance is genuinely impressive. Changxin Technology announced today that it will fully exercise the over-allotment option in its IPO, issuing an additional 1.003 billion shares. As a leader in semiconductor memory, it has always drawn significant market attention.Overall, yesterday's market performance was middling—not bad, but not particularly strong either. However, since the Shanghai Composite engulfed Monday's bearish candle, I'm leaning slightly more optimistic. Even if both the PCE data and Nvidia's earnings disappoint, the Shanghai Composite is still expected to maintain relatively stable consolidation.-END-
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