Photographed in Phoenix Ancient Town, January 2023

As of August 25, the most eye-catching figure in the crypto market is Ethereum's roughly 30% weekly gain, with Bitcoin up about 23% over the same period—a picture that looks like a full-blown bull market. But zoom out, and a counterintuitive fact emerges: the so-called "Altseason" hasn't truly arrived yet; only a handful of leading coins are rallying.

First, let's look at the rally itself. ETH surged from around $1,876 to near $2,470, XRP jumped as much as 49% in a week, and Zcash climbed roughly 64%—a few leaders are indeed on fire. However, this surge has been accompanied by massive short liquidations. Since August 19, Ethereum futures have seen cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.3 billion, with shorts accounting for as much as 88.4% of that—a classic short squeeze. Leverage cascades amplified the gains, not solid incremental buying pressure.

Capital flows tell an even clearer story. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw consecutive net inflows from August 17 to 21, pulling in $697 million for the week, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $537 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $750 million over the same period. The divergence between the two products is stark, and the ETH/BTC ratio has risen from 0.0299 to 0.0318, indicating money is rotating from Bitcoin into Ethereum.

But why doesn't this count as an altseason? Because the rally is concentrated in a few top names and hasn't spread to the broad universe of mid- and small-cap altcoins. Bitcoin's dominance rate remains above 59%, and the Altseason index is at low levels. Fundstrat's Tom Lee describes this "rotation from BTC to ETH" as a shift brewing for nearly a decade, but the reality is that while institutional ETF flows and the exchange rate have moved, the broad-based rally across the board hasn't materialized yet.

At its core, this rally is "event-driven plus short squeezing," not a comprehensive bull market. ETH outperforming BTC is real, but mistaking a leader-led surge for the start of an altseason is premature. For retail investors, chasing a few altcoin leaders that have already doubled carries far more risk than opportunity. A genuinely healthy altseason requires seeing capital spread to mid- and small-cap coins and a clear decline in Bitcoin dominance—that's the signal for trend confirmation, not the current scenario of a lone leader stealing the spotlight.

From another angle, ETH's strength is also tied to macro liquidity expectations. The market is broadly betting on a path of Fed rate cuts ahead, lifting the valuation anchor for risk assets, and crypto, as a high-beta asset, shows the most elasticity. But rate-cut expectations are fickle—if macro data comes in surprisingly strong and the timing of cuts gets pushed back, the profits accumulated in this short-squeeze rally could flood out quickly. For those looking to participate, rather than trying to call the top, a more pragmatic approach is to set your own discipline: cap your position size, have a stop-loss plan, and don't mistake a temporary leader-led surge for a permanent bull run. If an altseason truly arrives, opportunities won't be confined to just this week or two.