The market has slowed for five consecutive days, and this rally has hit another roadblock. Yesterday, Bitcoin briefly surged to a high of 81,270, but the pullback was swift—plunging nearly 3,000 points to 77,808 before recovering to around 79,000. Ethereum saw even less volatility, with a high of 2,533 and a low of 2,412, a range of about a hundred points, and it's currently trading at 2,459. Recent movements clearly show a divergence between listed and unlisted coins. While both have seen some gains, listed coins have posted significantly larger increases with shallower pullbacks. Unlisted coins, on the other hand, have shown lackluster growth. Combined with recent moves by the U.S., there are clear signs of a crackdown on altcoins, and it's likely that altcoin performance won't shine for quite some time. Let me briefly break down what lies ahead.

Don't hold out too much hope for this year's trajectory. The recent data released by the U.S. has several glaring holes. When it comes to rate cuts and hikes, you should also tread cautiously. I'm a staunch bull, but not a blind one. Let me make just one point: the U.S. previously repurchased Treasury bonds with a $2 billion injection, and it barely made a ripple. The buyer should have been the Federal Reserve, but the role has shifted to the U.S. government—that's not a bullish signal. Since Trump took office, the national debt has surged from $2.8 trillion to $4 trillion. In just a few short years, that says a lot. This is no longer a battle between rate cuts and hikes; it's about who's going to take over the debt. A $2 billion injection is a drop in the bucket, yet yields are still holding above 5%. That tells you no one wants to buy—only when there are few buyers do yields stay this high. With debt climbing and yields this elevated, how will the interest ever be repaid? The U.S. will likely focus on rate hikes and cuts in the near term, and the crypto market won't be a top priority.

Cui's Take: The July data just came out yesterday, with PCE inflation exceeding expectations and the odds of a rate hike spiking. But don't panic—September is likely to stick with the same strategy. This data will mostly impact the October FOMC meeting, but as long as the no-cut policy holds this year, the crypto market will still face pressure. On the short-term front, if Bitcoin can't stabilize above the 80,000 mark soon, this rally is basically winding down. If you're holding trapped positions, now might be a good time to consider unwinding them. The pullback could easily reach the 70,000 range or even lower. The key catalyst to watch is X's announcement that it plans to allow users to buy Bitcoin. If that materializes soon, or if some legal license gets approved down the line, we could see a 5,000–10,000 point extension (though that's unlikely in the short term and will probably align with next year's clearer regulations). Don't get your hopes up too high for that clarity—the tug-of-war will continue.