After a 24% surge in August, BTC briefly broke through $79,000 on the first day of September. But when everyone starts shouting "bull market is back," the real risk may just be beginning.Let's look at today's actual market action (September 1):Bitcoin: Trading in the $78,700-$79,000 range, with a 24-hour low of $77,200 and a high that briefly exceeded $79,000. August saw a cumulative gain of 24%, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2026.Ethereum: $2,470-$2,487, up approximately 1.5%-2.2% over the past 24 hours.Market Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index has risen to 69-75, indicating a state of "greed."Liquidations Across the Market: Over the past 24 hours, both longs and shorts have seen liquidations, with the market in a classic "two-way squeeze" pattern.What Happened in August? — From $58K to $79K, Bulls Took One MonthIn July, Bitcoin briefly fell below $58,000; in August, bulls pushed the price up 24% in just one month.What drove this? Three words: institutional buying.Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of nearly $1 billion. Ethereum investment products recorded net inflows for 10 consecutive days, totaling $815.7 million.On Monday (August 31), spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $216.7 million, reversing Friday's outflow of $201.8 million. BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed $205.9 million, accounting for approximately 95% of the day's total net inflow.Institutions haven't fled—they're buying.But September's Opening Is Not So SimpleSignal 1: Macro Pressures Are BuildingLast week, after Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, BTC pulled back from above $81,000. The market has now priced in a 64% probability of a rate hike in September. With PCE inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 3.3%, Warsh made it clear that the 2% inflation target is a "hard constraint."The Fed meeting on September 15 could be a major turning point for the market.Signal 2: $80,000 Is the "Gate of Hell"In August, BTC peaked above $81,000, but profit-taking subsequently dragged prices back to the $78,000-$79,000 range. Analysts note that BTC holding above $80,000 is "extremely difficult, with heavy selling pressure."Signal 3: Geopolitical Risks Could Ignite at Any MomentNews of a U.S. military strike on Iran briefly caused BTC to dip. Should the Middle East situation escalate again, risk assets would be the first to suffer.The Real Cards in the Hands of Bulls and Bears1. ETF inflows continue: Monday's net inflow of $216.7 million shows institutions haven't retreated.2. Price sits above all major moving averages: BTC is currently above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, presenting a classic bullish technical structure.3. August closed with a strong bullish monthly candle: Bullish momentum has fully taken control, laying a solid foundation for September.1. Heavy selling pressure above $80,000: Arbitrageurs and sellers have built up significant resistance above $80,000.2. Rate hike expectations weigh on risk assets: The probability of a September hike has risen to 64%, and tightening liquidity pressures the crypto market.3. Some analysts are bearish on September: CMT analyst AG Thorson predicts a potential decline to around $40,000 between September and October.Bitcoin (current price ~$78,700):· Resistance above: $79,000-$79,450 (psychological level + short-term pressure); $80,500 (fair value gap); $81,265 (recent high)· Support below: $77,700-$78,000 (immediate support); $77,200 (intraday low); $76,000-$73,000 (stronger support)Ethereum (current price ~$2,470):· Resistance above: $2,500 (psychological level)· Support below: $2,400 (round number); $2,350 (previous platform)Let Me Tell You Directly: What I'm Doing· Move BTC stop-loss up to $77,000; don't touch it unless broken· Move ETH stop-loss up to $2,350· Consider trimming some positions in the $79,000-$80,000 range to lock in profitsIf you're on the sidelines and want to enter:· Wait for a pullback to $77,700-$78,000 before considering scaling in· Don't chase above $79,000If you want to trade short-term:· BTC: If it stabilizes at $77,700-$78,000, you can try a light long with a stop-loss at $77,000; if it meets resistance at $79,500-$80,000, you can try a light short with a stop-loss at $80,500· ETH: If it stabilizes at $2,400-$2,420, you can try a light long with a stop-loss at $2,350; if it meets resistance at $2,500-$2,520, you can try a light short with a stop-loss at $2,550Three Sentences to Keep Your Composure1. August was up 24%, and September's first day is still rising—the trend isn't broken, so don't scare yourself.2. But $80,000 is a high that's failed three times—chasing at this level offers poor risk-reward.3. The September 15 Fed meeting is the biggest variable—whether they hike or not will determine the direction for the second half of the month.BTC at $78,700, ETH at $2,470—August ended perfectly, institutions are still buying, but the selling pressure at $80,000 is real. If you hold, trail your stop-loss; if you're on the sidelines, wait for a pullback; don't chase above $79,000. The biggest risk in September isn't a decline—it's being fully invested at the wrong price.Comment Section Interaction: Did you profit from August's 24% rally, or did you miss it? What's your cost basis? Are you planning to add or trim at $79,000? Let's hear it in the comments!(Risk Disclaimer: The above is a personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; make decisions with caution.)
