Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle: Still Valid, Trend Reversal Expected in H2 2026!
Published: 2026-08-27 12:49
Views: 2,062
Today, we're going to discuss a topic that the market has largely overlooked, one where misconceptions have already been deeply ingrained.
Is Bitcoin's four-year cycle still valid?
In past bull and bear cycles, the entire crypto industry's market trends have shown a high correlation with Bitcoin's halving events occurring every four years.
Around Bitcoin's halving → BTC rises → Price breaks previous highs after halving → Altcoins rally broadly → Then the industry enters a bear market → And we wait for the next Bitcoin halving countdown...
In this cycle, however, many in the market claim that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has become obsolete. Since only Bitcoin has risen while Ethereum and most altcoins have underperformed, they argue the industry's rules have fundamentally changed.
Others suggest that this cycle's poor performance means we should wait for Bitcoin's next halving in 2028.
Regardless of which view you hold, the core assumption is the same: the industry's bull and bear cycles are inherently tied to Bitcoin's halving schedule.
This is a misconception born from habitual thinking.
Take an example: in the past, Moutai was seen as a barometer for China's A-share market. But now, people realize that Moutai's performance doesn't dictate the entire market's bull or bear trends—it's just one component.
Similarly, crypto is now an entire industry, a whole sector in itself.
You can say that crypto includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and various altcoins.But you cannot claim that Bitcoin equals the entire crypto industry.
With this in mind, let's revisit Bitcoin's halving and the four-year cycle.
At its core, Bitcoin's halving remains effective—effective for Bitcoin itself! Every four years, the cost of mining each coin genuinely increases, the supply of newly mined coins decreases, and these hard constraints push prices upward.
But whether Bitcoin's halving cycle will continue to influence the entire industry as it once did? That's a big question mark.
What's certain is that future market movements will become increasingly divergent!
The era of simply buying before Bitcoin's halving and selling after it breaks new highs to end the bull run is over.
In the future, every sector and every coin will experience its own bull and bear cycles across six distinct phases.
Those who only watch Bitcoin to determine market trends and decide when to buy or sell will completely lose their bearings.
A rational recommendation: proactively learn methodologies to identify different coins and judge market bottoms and tops.For more discussion: yuhen3366
